hi i have STATA result and i need helping me to summarize it my thesis about THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF SYRIAN REFUGEES IN TURKEYso i have the data and i did it in STATA program but i have difficulty to summarize itcan you help
original_regression_with_all_controls.docx
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>>> ORIGINAL REGRESSION WITH ALL CONTROLS
. regress unemployment refugees capitalinvestment trade cpi wagechange,
vce(robust) level(90)
Linear regression
Number of obs =
F( 5,
17) =
Prob > F
=
R-squared
=
Root MSE
=
23
13.26
0.0000
0.7321
.72259
———————————————————————————-|
Robust
unemployment |
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[90% Conf. Interval]
——————+————————————————————–refugees | -1.29e-06
7.80e-07
-1.65
0.118
-2.64e-06
7.13e-08
capitalinvestment |
.033777
.0248133
1.36
0.191
-.0093884
.0769425
trade | -.2042644
.1266318
-1.61
0.125
-.424554
.0160251
cpi |
.0265338
.0367972
0.72
0.481
-.0374788
.0905464
wagechange |
.013735
.0593549
0.23
0.820
-.0895192
.1169893
_cons |
6.119765
6.016088
1.02
0.323
-4.345863
16.58539
———————————————————————————->>> THE REFUGEE VARIABLE IS ULTIMATELY INSIGNIFICANT, AND WHILE THE SAME IS TRUE
FOR TRADE, TRADE IS A COUNTER-WEIGHT CONTROL TO STABILISE THE REGRESSION FOR THE
SIGNIFICANT CAPITAL INVESTMENT. AT 10% ALPHA, THE REFUGEE VARIABLE IS DROPPED, BUT
IT WAS NEGATIVELY CORRELATED (I.E. NOT CAUSAL). SINCE THE REFUGEE VARIABLE IS
INSIGNIFICANT, THERE IS NO NEED TO INTERPRET THE EFFECT OF THE COEFFICIENT.
. regress unemployment refugees capitalinvestment trade, vce(robust) level(90)
Linear regression
Number of obs =
F( 3,
19) =
Prob > F
=
R-squared
=
Root MSE
=
23
18.00
0.0000
0.7263
.69086
———————————————————————————-|
Robust
unemployment |
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[90% Conf. Interval]
——————+————————————————————–refugees | -9.14e-07
5.90e-07
-1.55
0.138
-1.93e-06
1.07e-07
capitalinvestment |
.0475772
.0160124
2.97
0.008
.0198896
.0752648
trade | -.1722936
.1119767
-1.54
0.140
-.3659162
.021329
_cons |
9.08851
3.263275
2.79
0.012
3.445874
14.73115
———————————————————————————->>> WHY I COULD NOT REMOVE TRADE, THE R2 WENT DOWN DUE TO OMIITED VARIABLE BIAS.
. regress unemployment refugees capitalinvestment, vce(robust) level(90)
Linear regression
Number of obs =
F( 2,
20) =
Prob > F
=
R-squared
=
Root MSE
=
23
15.00
0.0001
0.6788
.72953
———————————————————————————-|
Robust
unemployment |
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[90% Conf. Interval]
——————+————————————————————–refugees | -1.44e-07
5.56e-07
-0.26
0.798
-1.10e-06
8.14e-07
capitalinvestment |
.0313533
.0188833
1.66
0.112
-.0012151
.0639216
_cons |
5.184105
2.216655
2.34
0.030
1.360999
9.007211
———————————————————————————–
REFUGEES ARE HIGHLY POSITIVELY, CORRELATIVELY LINKED TO INFLATION (AS MEASURED BY
THE CPI). HOWEVER, THE IMPACT CAN BE SEEN AS TRIVIAL, AS IT TAKES 100,000 REFUGEES
TO MOVE THE CPI BY 1.43 POINTS. THE THEORY INVOLVED IS THAT AS REFUGEES ENTER
TURKEY, THEIR DEMAND FOR GOODS AND SERVICES UPSETS THE ORIGINAL TURKISH DEMAND AND
SUPPLY CONTRAINTS.
. regress cpi refugees capitalinvestment trade, vce(robust) level(90)
Linear regression
Number of obs =
F( 3,
19) =
Prob > F
=
R-squared
=
Root MSE
=
23
541.17
0.0000
0.9879
3.9094
———————————————————————————-|
Robust
cpi |
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[90% Conf. Interval]
——————+————————————————————–refugees |
.0000143
2.74e-06
5.21
0.000
9.56e-06
.000019
capitalinvestment |
.5128145
.0787817
6.51
0.000
.3765905
.6490384
trade |
1.389367
.4680095
2.97
0.008
.5801161
2.198617
_cons |
105.1412
17.98698
5.85
0.000
74.03931
136.2431
———————————————————————————–
. regress cpi refugees capitalinvestment confidenceindex unemployment wagechange
trade, vce(robust) level(90)
Linear regression
Number of obs =
F( 6,
16) =
Prob > F
=
R-squared
=
Root MSE
=
23
369.07
0.0000
0.9889
4.082
>>> ORIGINAL REGRESSION WITH ALL CONTROLS
———————————————————————————-|
Robust
cpi |
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[90% Conf. Interval]
——————+————————————————————–refugees |
.0000148
3.07e-06
4.83
0.000
9.45e-06
.0000202
capitalinvestment |
.4763771
.1043813
4.56
0.000
.2941395
.6586147
confidenceindex | -.0372903
.1873061
-0.20
0.845
-.364305
.2897243
unemployment |
.8054667
1.218742
0.66
0.518
-1.322315
2.933249
wagechange | -.5410081
.3344995
-1.62
0.125
-1.125005
.0429891
trade |
1.35088
.5385772
2.51
0.023
.4105868
2.291173
_cons |
107.8696
21.89544
4.93
0.000
69.64268
146.0965
———————————————————————————–
>>> ORIGINAL REGRESSION WITH ALL CONTROLS
. regress growth refugees capitalinvestment trade cpi, vce(robust) level(90)
Linear regression
Number of obs =
F( 4,
18) =
Prob > F
=
R-squared
=
Root MSE
=
23
5.73
0.0037
0.4078
1.0147
———————————————————————————-|
Robust
growth |
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[90% Conf. Interval]
——————+————————————————————–refugees |
7.47e-08
1.29e-06
0.06
0.954
-2.16e-06
2.31e-06
capitalinvestment |
.1230504
.0402211
3.06
0.007
.0533044
.1927963
trade |
.2560338
.1583088
1.62
0.123
-.0184837
.5305512
cpi | -.1296553
.0685652
-1.89
0.075
-.2485517
-.0107588
_cons |
6.219728
7.201751
0.86
0.399
-6.268567
18.70802
———————————————————————————–
>>> REPLACING CPI WITH IPI CAUSES THE REFUGEE VARIABLE TO GO FROM HIGHLY
INSIGNIFICANT TO HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT. WHY?
. regress growth refugees capitalinvestment trade ipi, vce(robust) level(90)
Linear regression
Number of obs =
F( 4,
18) =
Prob > F
=
R-squared
=
Root MSE
=
23
4.12
0.0153
0.2621
1.1327
———————————————————————————-|
Robust
growth |
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[90% Conf. Interval]
——————+————————————————————–refugees | -2.06e-06
8.72e-07
-2.36
0.030
-3.57e-06
-5.47e-07
capitalinvestment |
.0569663
.0183737
3.10
0.006
.0251051
.0888274
trade |
.0139801
.1523021
0.09
0.928
-.2501215
.2780817
ipi |
.0340215
.0771183
0.44
0.664
-.0997066
.1677495
_cons | -9.278144
7.523521
-1.23
0.233
-22.32441
3.76812
———————————————————————————–
>>> IPI PROVES TO STILL BE INSIGNIFICANT AFTER REMOVING THE TRADE VARIABLE.
ULTIMATELY, THE INTRODUCTION OF THE IPI VARIABLES HELPED TO REALISE THAT CPI WAS A
CAUSE FOR DISRUPTION OF THE REFUGEE VARIABLE. THIS COULD BE A SPURRIOUS REGRESSION
RESULT, BUT CLEARLY THERE IS A NEGATIVE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GROWTH AND THE
INCREASE OF REFUGEES.
. . regress growth refugees capitalinvestment ipi, vce(robust) level(90)
Linear regression
Number of obs =
F( 3,
19) =
Prob > F
=
R-squared
=
Root MSE
=
23
5.47
0.0070
0.2619
1.1027
———————————————————————————-|
Robust
growth |
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[90% Conf. Interval]
——————+————————————————————–refugees | -2.12e-06
5.94e-07
-3.57
0.002
-3.15e-06
-1.09e-06
capitalinvestment |
.0578079
.0152379
3.79
0.001
.0314596
.0841562
ipi |
.0369991
.0650794
0.57
0.576
-.0755318
.1495299
_cons | -9.247426
7.350026
-1.26
0.224
-21.9566
3.461745
———————————————————————————–
>>> REMOVING THE HIGHLY INSIGNIFICANT IPI VARIABLE REFINES THE REGRESSION, OVERALL.
. . regress growth refugees capitalinvestment, vce(robust) level(90)
Linear regression
Number of obs =
F( 2,
20) =
Prob > F
=
R-squared
=
Root MSE
=
23
5.20
0.0152
0.2420
1.0891
———————————————————————————-|
Robust
growth |
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[90% Conf. Interval]
——————+————————————————————–refugees | -2.12e-06
6.86e-07
-3.09
0.006
-3.30e-06
-9.35e-07
capitalinvestment |
.0637079
.019757
3.22
0.004
.0296326
.0977832
_cons | -5.692499
2.220433
-2.56
0.019
-9.522121
-1.862877
———————————————————————————–
…
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